Diagnosing snow accumulation errors in a rain‐snow transitional environment with snow board observations          下载免费PDF全文

Nicholas E. Wayand  Martyn P. Clark  Jessica D. Lundquist 《水文研究》2017,31(2):349-363

Diagnosing the source of errors in snow models requires intensive observations, a flexible model framework to test competing hypotheses, and a methodology to systematically test the dominant snow processes. We present a novel process‐based approach to diagnose model errors through an example that focuses on snow accumulation processes (precipitation partitioning, new snow density, and snow compaction). Twelve years of meteorological and snow board measurements were used to identify the main source of model error on each snow accumulation day. Results show that modeled values of new snow density were outside observational uncertainties in 52% of days available for evaluation, while precipitation partitioning and compaction were in error 45% and 16% of the time, respectively. Precipitation partitioning errors mattered more for total winter accumulation during the anomalously warm winter of 2014–2015, when a higher fraction of precipitation fell within the temperature range where partition methods had the largest error. These results demonstrate how isolating individual model processes can identify the primary source(s) of model error, which helps prioritize future research.  相似文献   

Assessing regional‐scale spatio‐temporal patterns of groundwater–surface water interactions using a coupled SWAT‐MODFLOW model          下载免费PDF全文

Ryan T. Bailey  Tyler C. Wible  Mazdak Arabi  Rosemary M. Records  Jeffrey Ditty 《水文研究》2016,30(23):4420-4433

Interaction between groundwater and surface water in watersheds has significant impacts on water management and water rights, nutrient loading from aquifers to streams, and in‐stream flow requirements for aquatic species. Of particular importance are the spatial patterns of these interactions. This study explores the spatio‐temporal patterns of groundwater discharge to a river system in a semi‐arid region, with methods applied to the Sprague River Watershed (4100 km²) within the Upper Klamath Basin in Oregon, USA. Patterns of groundwater–surface water interaction are explored throughout the watershed during the 1970–2003 time period using a coupled SWAT‐MODFLOW model tested against streamflow, groundwater level and field‐estimated reach‐specific groundwater discharge rates. Daily time steps and coupling are used, with groundwater discharge rates calculated for each model computational point along the stream. Model results also are averaged by month and by year to determine seasonal and decadal trends in groundwater discharge rates. Results show high spatial variability in groundwater discharge, with several locations showing no groundwater/surface water interaction. Average annual groundwater discharge is 20.5 m³/s, with maximum and minimum rates occurring in September–October and March–April, respectively. Annual average rates increase by approximately 0.02 m³/s per year over the 34‐year period, negligible compared with the average annual rate, although 70% of the stream network experiences an increase in groundwater discharge rate between 1970 and 2003. Results can assist with water management, identifying potential locations of heavy nutrient mass loading from the aquifer to streams and ecological assessment and planning focused on locations of high groundwater discharge. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)     

《Ocean Modelling》2015

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.  相似文献   

Limitations of suction‐controlled triaxial tests in the characterization of unsaturated soils          下载免费PDF全文

X. Zhang 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(2):269-296

Behavior of unsaturated soils is influenced by many factors, and the influences of these factors are usually coupled together. Suction‐controlled triaxial (SCTX) tests are considered to allow researchers to investigate influences of individual variables on unsaturated soils under specified stress path with controls of stresses, pore water, and air pressures. In the past 50 years, SCTX testing method has been established as a standard approach to characterize constitutive behavior of unsaturated soils. Most important concepts for modern unsaturated soil mechanics were developed upon results from the SCTX tests. Among these, one of the most important contributions in the constitutive modeling of elasto‐plastic behavior for unsaturated soils is the Barcelona basic model (BBM) proposed by Alonso et al. in 1990. The BBM successfully explained many features of unsaturated soils and received extensive acceptance. However, the SCTX tests are designed based upon the divide‐and‐conquer approach in which an implicit assumption is used: soil behavior is stress‐path independent. However, it is well‐established that unsaturated soil behavior is elasto‐plastic and stress‐path dependent. It is found that the SCTX tests in fact cannot control the stress path of an unsaturated soil during loading. This incapability, in combination with complicated loading/collapse behavior of unsaturated soils, makes the SCTX tests for characterizing unsaturated soil questionable. This paper discusses the limitations of the SCTX tests in the characterization of unsaturated soils. A possible solution to the problem was proposed based on a newly developed modified state surface approach. The discussions are limited for isotropic conditions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Implicit integration under mixed controls of a breakage model for unsaturated crushable soils          下载免费PDF全文

Yida Zhang  Giuseppe Buscarnera 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2016,40(6):887-918

This paper discusses a series of stress point algorithms for a breakage model for unsaturated granular soils. Such model is characterized by highly nonlinear coupling terms introduced by breakage‐dependent hydro‐mechanical energy potentials. To integrate accurately and efficiently its constitutive equations, specific algorithms have been formulated using a backward Euler scheme. In particular, because implementation and verification of unsaturated soil models often require the use of mixed controls, the incorporation of various hydro‐mechanical conditions has been tackled. First, it is shown that the degree of saturation can be replaced with suction in the constitutive equations through a partial Legendre transformation of the energy potentials, thus changing the thermomechanical state variables and enabling a straightforward implementation of a different control mode. Then, to accommodate more complex control scenarios without redefining the energy potentials, a hybrid strategy has been used, combining the return mapping scheme with linearized constraints. It is shown that this linearization strategy guarantees similar levels of accuracy compared with a conventional strain–suction‐controlled implicit integration. In addition, it is shown that the use of linearized constraints offers the possibility to use the same framework to integrate a variety of control conditions (e.g., net stress and/or water‐content control). The convergence profiles indicate that both schemes preserve the advantages of implicit integration, that is, asymptotic quadratic convergence and unconditional stability. Finally, the performance of the two implicit schemes has been compared with that of an explicit algorithm with automatic sub‐stepping and error control, showing that for the selected breakage model, implicit integration leads to a significant reduction of the computational cost. Such features support the use of the proposed hybrid scheme also in other modeling contexts, especially when strongly nonlinear models have to be implemented and/or validated by using non‐standard hydro‐mechanical control conditions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Finite‐element modelling of physics‐based hillslope hydrology,Keith Beven,and beyond          下载免费PDF全文

Keith Loague  Brian A. Ebel 《水文研究》2016,30(14):2432-2437

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Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed‐use watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Michael G. Sunde  Hong S. He  Jason A. Hubbart  Michael A. Urban 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1790-1803

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (Δ_C) and severe (Δ_S) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from ?5.9% to ?26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under Δ_S. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (Δ_S), fall (Δ_S) and summer (Δ_C) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.  相似文献   

Evaluation of distributed BMPs in an urban watershed—High resolution modeling for stormwater management          下载免费PDF全文

Timothy J. Fry  Reed M. Maxwell 《水文研究》2017,31(15):2700-2712

The urban environment modifies the hydrologic cycle resulting in increased runoff rates, volumes, and peak flows. Green infrastructure, which uses best management practices (BMPs), is a natural system approach used to mitigate the impacts of urbanization onto stormwater runoff. Patterns of stormwater runoff from urban environments are complex, and it is unclear how efficiently green infrastructure will improve the urban water cycle. These challenges arise from issues of scale, the merits of BMPs depend on changes to small‐scale hydrologic processes aggregated up from the neighborhood to the urban watershed. Here, we use a hyper‐resolution (1 m), physically based hydrologic model of the urban hydrologic cycle with explicit inclusion of the built environment. This model represents the changes to hydrology at the BMP scale (~1 m) and represents each individual BMP explicitly to represent response over the urban watershed. Our study varies both the percentage of BMP emplacement and their spatial location for storm events of increasing intensity in an urban watershed. We develop a metric of effectiveness that indicates a nonlinear relationship that is seen between percent BMP emplacement and storm intensity. Results indicate that BMP effectiveness varies with spatial location and that type and emplacement within the urban watershed may be more important than overall percent.  相似文献   

Petrogenetic modeling of rock variety in the Khalkhab–Neshveh pluton,NW of Saveh,Iran     

MEHDI REZAEI‐KAHKHAEI  DARIUSH ESMAEILY  FERNANDO CORFU 《Island Arc》2011,20(3):329-345

The Khalkhab–Neshveh (KN) pluton is a part of Urumieh–Dokhtar Magmatic Arc and was intruded into a covering of basalt and andesite of Eocene to early Miocene age. It is a medium to high‐K, metaluminous and I‐type pluton ranging in composition from quartz monzogabbro, through quartz monzodiorite, granodiorite, and granite. The KN rocks show subtle differentiation trends strongly controlled by clinopyroxene, plagioclase, hornblende, apatite, and titanite, where most major elements (except K₂O) are negatively correlated with SiO₂; and Al₂O₃, Na₂O, Sr, Eu, and Y define curvilinear trends. Considering three processes of magmatic differentiation including mixing and/or mingling between basaltic and dacitic magmas, gravitational fractional crystallization and in situ crystallization revealed that the latter is the most likely process for the evolution of KN magma. This is supported by the occurrence of all rock types at the same level, the lack of mafic enclaves in the granitoid rocks, the curvilinear trends of Na₂O, Sr, and Eu, and the constant ratios of (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i from quartz monzodiorite to granite (0.70475 and 0.70471, respectively). In situ crystallization took place via accumulation of plagioclase and clinopyroxene phenocrysts and concentration of these phases in the quartz monzogabbro and quartz monzodiorite at the margins of the intrusion at T ≥ 1050°C, and by filter pressing and fractionation of hornblende, plagioclase, and later biotite in the granitoids at T = ～880°C.  相似文献   

各向异性矿化特征的分析与模拟 及其在储量估算中的应用     

金毅  郑德顺  潘懋  张璐 《地质学报》2011,85(9):1519-1527

矿化作用往往是地质事件及局部过程共同作用的结果,导致矿体空间形态复杂多变、矿石品位呈各向异性、尺度不一的非线性空间变异模式.传统方法无论是在矿石量的计算方面还是在矿块内平均品位的确定上都存在多种误差,并且无法实现信息的动态管理及直观表达.文章以安庆铜矿中心矿区为例,采用对数块kriging与三维地学模拟技术相结合的方法...  相似文献